- How do you protect your capital when the market moves against you?
- How much do you buy or sell when you get a signal, etc. etc.
You see, real money is made through intelligent exits - which allows a trader to cut losses short and let profits run. In the future I will discuss some exit strategies that you can adopt. However, all good traders have realized that money is made by developing their own ideas and following a method that is designed to fit them.
Donchian was one of the first people to write about a system using moving averages. He used both the 5-day and 20-day moving averages. When the 5-day average crossed above the 20-day average, you went long. When the 5-day average went down and crossed below the 20-day average, you reversed and went short.
This type of system works great in pure trending environments; however, markets tend to trend about 15% of the time. As a result, during consolidation periods this system gets whipsawed continually.
To overcome this problem, R.C. Allen popularized a method in the early 70s using the 4-, 9-, and 18-day moving averages. When the 4-day and 9-day averages both crossed the 18-day average, you would enter the market - long if they are moving up and short if they are moving down. When the 4-day signal crosses back across the 9, you get an exit signal. However, you don't get a new entry signal until both the 4 and the 9 are on the same side of the 18-day average.
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